Despite the large amount of Arizona jobs (
Click here) expected to be lost this year and next, the state could see employment beginning to grow by the end of 2010.
An updated workforce forecast from the
Arizona Department of Commerce predicts the state will lose 178,500 jobs, or 6.8 percent, during 2009 and 17,300 jobs, or .7 percent, during 2010, making for a total loss of more than 195,800 jobs, or 7.5 percent, during the two year period.
In comparison, the nation as a whole is expected to have a total job loss of 3.7 percent this year and .5 percent during 2010. Projected job losses for
Arizona this year have increased by 32,300 since the fist workforce forecast released in April, but projected job losses for 2010 have decreased by 4,200.
Nearly every industry is expected to lose jobs during the two year period: manufacturing by 15,200 jobs, or 8.8 percent; natural resources and mining by 2,400 jobs, or 18.1 percent; construction by 61,400 jobs, or 32.7 percent; trade, transportation and utilities by 37,700 jobs, or 7.3 percent; information by 4,400 jobs, or 10.7 percent; financial activities by 9,400 jobs, or 5.3 percent; professional and business services by 42,500, or 11 percent; leisure and hospitality by 14,500 jobs, or 5.4 percent; other services by 6,900 jobs, or 6.9 percent; and
government by 7,500, or 1.8 percent.
The education and health services industry is the only one expected to add jobs during the two year period. That industry should add 600 jobs this year and 5,800 jobs during 2010.
The Department of Commerce predicts that non-farm job growth will begin to take shape by the end of 2010 as:
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act spending boosts the state's economy in the form of infrastructure for energy, transportation, healthcare and education.
Federal government expenditures are maintained for border security, rural area firefighting, military bases and private sector contracting for civilian and military purposes.
Federal monetary policy encourages lending through low interest rates and the injection of liquidity into financial institutions.
A buildup in the inventory cycle materializes as businesses and consumers increase spending to
replenish depleted inventories and buy essential and other goods such as cars, clothing and household
appliances.
Stable prices for many goods motivate some increased level of purchasing.
Recent trends have shown increasing stabilization in the American and global economies, including increased orders for manufactured goods, an increase capacity utilization rate, growing national housing starts and sales, a greater willingness of financial institutions to lend and a leveling of world trade.
Even though these trends will have a positive impact on Arizona's economy, growth rates are still expected to be slow for several reasons.
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